Morning Coffee: "Soul-crushing" banking internship vs. $750k on Polymarket. Bad luck for the bankers expecting the biggest bonuses

If you're a university student without a banking internship, a university student who's completed a banking internship and found it unedifying, or even a student who's graduated without a top class degree, take heed. There is an alternative. It's lucrative, but it's gruelling.

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The Financial Times says a small group of elite and highly competitive students are making a fortune on Polymarket. They are mostly Gen Z and are at top universities. They are the sorts of bookish children and Olympiad winners who typically join top banks or top electronic trading firms. There are 30 of them on a Discord server called Alpha and in two years they've made a collective $40m. 

The students in question bet on everything from the weather, to US elections, to victories and defeats in the wars in Ukraine and Iran. Their bets are not "dumb" and they do not rely upon luck. They are highly researched and considered. It helps to be an adept at "building probabilistic models from vast historic datasets." It also helps to be able to click your mouse at high speeds.  

It's harder to get into Alpha than it is to get a banking internship. The group is invitation only and invitations depend upon becoming known to the group, often via pertinent observations on other Discords. These observations must be deleted upon joining. By keeping ideas for bets inside Alpha, knowledge is pooled. Outside, it drains away.

One recent Oxford University graduate told the FT he spent so much time researching bets and trading on Polymarket that he eventually graduated with a 2.2. However, he also graduated with $750k in the bank. He completed an internship at a small investment bank in his first year at university but found it "soul-crushing and alienating." In his second summer, he had no internship but was deep in Alpha.

Making money on Polymarket isn't easy. Some of the Alpha members the FT spoke to intimated addiction and relationship-breakdowns. “It sucks you in, especially if you’re capable,” said one. “It definitely consumes my life in a way that is not positive.” 

The Oxford University graduate said it became difficult to write essays because his brain became accustomed to clicking, prompting and scrolling. He went on holiday with his girlfriend at Easter and spent hours each day clicking between Polymarket and Discord. But now he's graduated and has $750k in the bank. He's interrailing through Europe. He's meeting his girlfriend in Thailand. He's still trading on Polymarket, but less intensely than before. There are no plans to go into banking.

Separately, equity capital markets (ECM) bankers have been predicted to receive generous bonuses for most of 2026. Maybe this will no longer occur.

The Financial Times notes that IPO proceeds so far this year have hit $147.5bn, versus $44bn for the same period last year, but that the engine is starting to sputter. 

A long list of companies that were planning to IPO in the third or fourth quarters have had second thoughts. They include OpenAI, EG Group, Holtec, Oura, SB Energy, Bamboo Insurance, Anthropic, AS Watson, Waterstones and Loveholidays. Ennismore and Hotel Investment Partners may yet delay IPOs too. Anthropic is going ahead, likely in November, but there is some trepidation.

Part of the problem is that some of this year's earlier IPOs (SpaceX)  have since plummeted in value. The big question now is whether 2026's delayed IPOs will happen in 2027. It's also whether ECM bankers will get paid as much as they'd hoped or whether banks will use the softening and postponements as an excuse to direct money elsewhere. 

Meanwhile...

Legal500 produced an annual league table of barristers. It went live with scathing reviews thanks to a work experience student with a grudge. (RollonFriday)

“I arrived to start my first year of university in September, and by the end of October all my course mates had spring weeks secured — I did not even know what a spring week was.” (The Times)  

Citadel Securities bought a stake in Wolfe Research and now its clients will get access to Wolfe's research and it will execute trades for Wolfe's clients. (Bloomberg) 

QRT hired Adhitya Sethaputra, a commodities trader who left Radiant World. (Bloomberg)  

When you're a VC with a passion for boasting on X. "Very "light" Saturday with 7 meetings on the calendar, working and coding in between. Loving the times..." (X) 

A whistleblower who flagged Howard Lutnick's ties to Jeffrey Epstein died by suicide according to the Banker. There is no suggestion that the two things are connected. Simon Andriesz spent 35 years in fixed income trading in London. Lutnick has denied any wrongdoing and said previously that: "I unequivocally condemn the conduct attributed to Jeffrey Epstein and everyone who participated in his illegal activities. The survivors of his crimes deserve our respect and support.” (The Banker) 

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